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Measuring the effectiveness of COVID-19 containment policies in Italian regions: are we doing enough?

  • Demetrio Panarello
  • Giorgio Tassinari

A successful fight against COVID-19 greatly depends on citizens’ adherence to the restrictive measures, which may not suffice alone. Making use of a containment index, data on sanctions, and Google’s movement trends across Italian regions, complemented by other sources, we investigate the extent to which compliance with the mobility limitations has affected the number of deaths over time in the period from the 24th of February 2020 to the 9th of November 2020, by using panel data for Italian regions, analysed through a negative binomial regression method. We also differentiated the study period, estimating two distinct models on two subsamples: until the 13th of September and since the 14th of September. In so doing, we show how the pandemic dynamics have changed between the first and the second wave of the emergency. Our results highlight that the importance of the restrictive measures and of citizens’ accord on their abidance has greatly increased since the end of the summer, also because the stringency level of the adopted measures has critically declined. Informing citizens about the effects and purposes of the restrictive measures is of paramount importance, especially in the current phase of the pandemic.

  • Keywords:
  • Compliance rate,
  • Schools reopening,
  • Second wave of COVID-19,
  • Google Community Mobility Reports,
  • Stringency index,
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Demetrio Panarello

University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0003-1667-1936

Giorgio Tassinari

University of Bologna, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-5161-7989

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  • Publication Year: 2021
  • Pages: 75-80
  • Content License: CC BY 4.0
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  • Publication Year: 2021
  • Content License: CC BY 4.0
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Chapter Information

Chapter Title

Measuring the effectiveness of COVID-19 containment policies in Italian regions: are we doing enough?

Authors

Demetrio Panarello, Giorgio Tassinari

Language

English

DOI

10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.15

Peer Reviewed

Publication Year

2021

Copyright Information

© 2021 Author(s)

Content License

CC BY 4.0

Metadata License

CC0 1.0

Bibliographic Information

Book Title

ASA 2021 Statistics and Information Systems for Policy Evaluation

Book Subtitle

BOOK OF SHORT PAPERS of the on-site conference

Editors

Bruno Bertaccini, Luigi Fabbris, Alessandra Petrucci

Peer Reviewed

Publication Year

2021

Copyright Information

© 2021 Author(s)

Content License

CC BY 4.0

Metadata License

CC0 1.0

Publisher Name

Firenze University Press

DOI

10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8

eISBN (pdf)

978-88-5518-461-8

eISBN (xml)

978-88-5518-462-5

Series Title

Proceedings e report

Series ISSN

2704-601X

Series E-ISSN

2704-5846

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