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Population ageing and sustainability in South Tyrol: measuring the economic implications of an ageing society

  • Giulia Cavrini
  • Elisa Cisotto
  • Alex Weissensteiner

Meeting the challenge of population ageing requires a better understanding of frailty and disability, and appropriate strategies to ensure the resilience of the health and social care system, without destabilising public finances or over-burdening the economy. An increasing life expectancy will primarily affect the health care and the long-term care spending. Countries will face an ongoing challenge to provide care for a heterogeneous population of older adults. Within this context, the current paper is designed to (a) measure the current needs for social care in South Tyrol, (b) identify the local trajectories of health status, disaggregated by age, sex and severity of illness, (c) forecast the health care needs and the healthcare system’s financial sustainability. Demographic forecast data (up to 2050) on population age and sex structure is provided by ISTAT . Health care data for administrative and billing purposes is from the Autonomous Province of Bozen-Bolzano, which are used to study health care delivery, benefits, harms, and costs. Preliminary results show a decrease in the prevalence of individuals receiving home care allowance from 2009 to 2019 for all levels of severity and both for men and women. Overall, greater prevalence occurs at lower levels of health condition severity (levels 1 and 2 over a four points-scale of severity) and after age 75. Historical payments combined with the demographic forecast allow for an estimate of yearly average costs individual recipients (by age, sex, and health condition) as well as for the whole local social system.

  • Keywords:
  • Population ageing,
  • Sustainability,
  • South Tyrol,
  • Economic implications,
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Giulia Cavrini

Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-9084-3081

Elisa Cisotto

Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0001-9496-6022

Alex Weissensteiner

Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-8600-0516

  1. Christensen, K., G. Doblhammer, R. Rau and J.W. Vaupel (2009). Ageing populations: the challenges ahead, The Lancet, vol. 374, No. 9696, pp. 1196-1208.
  2. Cylus, J., Figueras, J., Normand, C. (2019). Will Population ageing spell the end of the Welfare State? A review of evidence and policy options. EU2019.FI. World Health Organisation. www.weforum.org.
  3. OECD (2017), Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  4. UN (2014). Population ageing and sustainable development. Population Facts, 4(Rev.1), pp. 1-4.
  5. WHO (‎2015)‎. World report on ageing and health. World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/186463.
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  • Publication Year: 2023
  • Pages: 141-144
  • Content License: CC BY 4.0
  • © 2023 Author(s)

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  • Publication Year: 2023
  • Content License: CC BY 4.0
  • © 2023 Author(s)

Chapter Information

Chapter Title

Population ageing and sustainability in South Tyrol: measuring the economic implications of an ageing society

Authors

Giulia Cavrini, Elisa Cisotto, Alex Weissensteiner

Language

English

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.25

Peer Reviewed

Publication Year

2023

Copyright Information

© 2023 Author(s)

Content License

CC BY 4.0

Metadata License

CC0 1.0

Bibliographic Information

Book Title

ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making

Book Subtitle

Book of short papers

Editors

Enrico di Bella, Luigi Fabbris, Corrado Lagazio

Peer Reviewed

Publication Year

2023

Copyright Information

© 2023 Author(s)

Content License

CC BY 4.0

Metadata License

CC0 1.0

Publisher Name

Firenze University Press, Genova University Press

DOI

10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3

eISBN (pdf)

979-12-215-0106-3

eISBN (xml)

979-12-215-0107-0

Series Title

Proceedings e report

Series ISSN

2704-601X

Series E-ISSN

2704-5846

54

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