- ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making
- Edited by Enrico di Bella, Luigi Fabbris, Corrado Lagazio
Population ageing and sustainability in South Tyrol: measuring the economic implications of an ageing society
- Giulia Cavrini
- Elisa Cisotto
- Alex Weissensteiner
- © 2023 Author(s) |
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI: 10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.25
Meeting the challenge of population ageing requires a better understanding of frailty and disability, and appropriate strategies to ensure the resilience of the health and social care system, without destabilising public finances or over-burdening the economy. An increasing life expectancy will primarily affect the health care and the long-term care spending. Countries will face an ongoing challenge to provide care for a heterogeneous population of older adults. Within this context, the current paper is designed to (a) measure the current needs for social care in South Tyrol, (b) identify the local trajectories of health status, disaggregated by age, sex and severity of illness, (c) forecast the health care needs and the healthcare system’s financial sustainability. Demographic forecast data (up to 2050) on population age and sex structure is provided by ISTAT . Health care data for administrative and billing purposes is from the Autonomous Province of Bozen-Bolzano, which are used to study health care delivery, benefits, harms, and costs. Preliminary results show a decrease in the prevalence of individuals receiving home care allowance from 2009 to 2019 for all levels of severity and both for men and women. Overall, greater prevalence occurs at lower levels of health condition severity (levels 1 and 2 over a four points-scale of severity) and after age 75. Historical payments combined with the demographic forecast allow for an estimate of yearly average costs individual recipients (by age, sex, and health condition) as well as for the whole local social system.
- Keywords:
- Population ageing,
- Sustainability,
- South Tyrol,
- Economic implications,
Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-9084-3081
Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0001-9496-6022
Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy - ORCID: 0000-0002-8600-0516
- Christensen, K., G. Doblhammer, R. Rau and J.W. Vaupel (2009). Ageing populations: the challenges ahead, The Lancet, vol. 374, No. 9696, pp. 1196-1208.
- Cylus, J., Figueras, J., Normand, C. (2019). Will Population ageing spell the end of the Welfare State? A review of evidence and policy options. EU2019.FI. World Health Organisation. www.weforum.org.
- OECD (2017), Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.
- UN (2014). Population ageing and sustainable development. Population Facts, 4(Rev.1), pp. 1-4.
- WHO (2015). World report on ageing and health. World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/186463.
Chapter Information
Chapter Title
Population ageing and sustainability in South Tyrol: measuring the economic implications of an ageing society
Authors
Giulia Cavrini, Elisa Cisotto, Alex Weissensteiner
Language
English
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3.25
Peer Reviewed
Publication Year
2023
Copyright Information
© 2023 Author(s)
Content License
Metadata License
Bibliographic Information
Book Title
ASA 2022 Data-Driven Decision Making
Book Subtitle
Book of short papers
Editors
Enrico di Bella, Luigi Fabbris, Corrado Lagazio
Peer Reviewed
Publication Year
2023
Copyright Information
© 2023 Author(s)
Content License
Metadata License
Publisher Name
Firenze University Press, Genova University Press
DOI
10.36253/979-12-215-0106-3
eISBN (pdf)
979-12-215-0106-3
eISBN (xml)
979-12-215-0107-0
Series Title
Proceedings e report
Series ISSN
2704-601X
Series E-ISSN
2704-5846